The table contains estimated dates of collisions and evaluations of probabilities of asteroids collisions with the Earth. Evaluations were obtained on the basis of modified Monte-Carlo method, using method based on ratio measures of areas (on the principle of geometrical definition of probability).
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Catalogue of the Solar System Small Bodies Orbital Evolution |
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Impact probability
# | Asteroid | H | Date | Probability  | Potentially hazardous | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 410777 (2009 FD) | 22.1 | 03/29/2185 | 3.02·10-3 | no | |||||
2 | 29075 (1950 DA) | 17.6 | 03/16/2880 | 4.46·10-5 | yes | |||||
3 | 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36) | 20.2 | 09/25/2175 | 3.72·10-5 | yes | |||||
4 | 2001 QJ96 | 22.2 | 09/01/2053 | 2.86·10-5 | no | |||||
5 | 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) | 19.1 | 04/12/2068 | 5.91·10-6 | yes | |||||
6 | 2011 CC22 | 21.3 | 08/02/2045 | 2.44·10-6 | yes | |||||
7 | 2007 TC14 | 22.1 | 10/22/2082 | 9.83·10-7 | no | |||||
8 | 2011 BT59 | 20.8 | 04/10/2052 | 5.90·10-7 | yes | |||||
9 | 2015 JJ | 22.1 | 11/06/2113 | 2.54·10-7 | no | |||||
10 | 2007 FT3 | 20.0 | 10/03/2041 | 1.97·10-7 | yes | |||||
11 | 2007 FT3 | 20.0 | 10/03/2030 | 1.74·10-7 | yes | |||||
12 | 2015 JJ | 22.1 | 11/07/2110 | 1.42·10-7 | no | |||||
13 | 2007 FT3 | 20.0 | 10/03/2019 | 1.15·10-7 | yes | |||||
14 | 2011 YV62 | 21.0 | 05/24/2080 | 1.13·10-7 | yes | |||||
15 | 2001 VB | 18.3 | 07/22/2037 | 1.10·10-7 | yes | |||||
16 | 2008 UV99 | 19.6 | 03/30/2019 | 5.57·10-8 | yes | |||||
17 | 2010 XA68 | 21.7 | 06/04/2037 | 4.16·10-8 | yes | |||||
18 | 1998 SH2 | 20.9 | 09/06/2097 | 2.21·10-8 | yes | |||||
19 | 2001 CA21 | 18.5 | 02/18/2060 | 2.18·10-8 | yes | |||||
20 | 2015 HV182 | 21.7 | 09/01/2046 | 9.91·10-9 | yes | |||||
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Potentially hazardous asteroid is one with minimal distance between its orbit and the Earth orbit (MOID parameter), which is less than 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km), and value of H is less than 22.
Calculations were performed using software, developed under support of research grant for SSTU postgraduates in 2015.
This project was supported by the Federal Agency of Education (project codes RNP 2.1.1.1689, RNP 2.1.1.745). | Samara State Technical University Applied Mathematics and Information Science Department |
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